Recent SF Sunset, Mar–Jun 2026

34 closed single-family sales across the SF Sunset · last 4 months (Mar–Jun 2026) · anchored on 1465 23rd Ave · as of 2026-06-09 · value 1465 → · when to buy → · 8-year trends → · bid odds → · browser →

Bottom line

Location matters most. The Inner Sunset sells at $1,422/sqft vs $1,111/sqft in the Outer Sunset — about 28% more for being closer to the park and UCSF.
Renovation pays, but the district-wide average hides it. Pooled together, renovated homes look cheaper per sqft — only because most of them sit in the cheaper outer avenues (Simpson's paradox). Compare homes in the same area and size range and renovated clearly wins, especially in the Central/Outer Sunset.
The market is hot. The median sale closed +21% over asking (+11% in the first half of the window, +28% in the second; 32 on-MLS sales). Monthly samples are too small to call a trend — the signal is the level: homes here reliably sell well over ask.
Facing 19th Ave (Highway 1) costs real money — not visible in this small set (no on-19th sales), but the 8-year data puts the discount at -25% $/sqft, holding even when only unrenovated homes are compared (-27%) (§3).

Read this first. This is 34 closed sales over 4 months — enough to show direction, not statistical precision. All figures are medians (individual sales ranged $670–$1,884/sqft). $/sqft blends location, size, and condition at once, so any single cut can mislead — the sections below hold each fixed in turn. Every dollar figure is the final closing price; the list price appears only in over-ask % (how far the sale closed above the original ask).

What the companion pages add. Value 1465: block-level comps, finish, and location put 1465 around $2.9M today (the $2.8M-twins view agrees). The 8-year model isolates a +14% renovation premium once size and location are held fixed. And when to buy: a renovated, 1465-sized home lists within ~1,000 ft about every 4 months. The sections below are the raw signal in this curated set that those models are built to read correctly.

1 · Location is king: the east–west gradient

Every sale plotted by its avenue, laid out like a map: the Outer Sunset (high avenues, toward the ocean) on the left, the Inner Sunset (toward the park & UCSF) on the right. $/sqft climbs as you move east. Dots are renovated / not; the line is the overall trend.

Click a dot to open its listing.

Median sold $/sqft by avenue bin (east → west)
Avenues	n	Median $/sqft
2–6	1	$1,522
7–11	5	$1,569
12–16	3	$1,422
17–21	3	$1,167
22–26	5	$1,231
27–31	7	$1,188
32–36	9	$1,082

Rolled into neighborhood bands
Band	n	Median $/sqft	Range
Inner Sunset (≤19th Ave)	11	$1,422	$670–$1,884
Central Sunset (20th–30th)	10	$1,207	$882–$1,445
Outer Sunset (≥31st Ave)	12	$1,111	$838–$1,260

2 · Renovation pays — once you stop comparing apples to oranges

Pooled across the whole district, renovated homes' median $/sqft comes in at or below unrenovated ones — which looks wrong, and is. Renovated stock concentrates in the cheaper outer avenues, and that drags its pooled number down (Simpson's paradox). Split by avenue and condition (renovated / period / unclassified) and the premium reappears: at any given avenue, the renovated trend runs higher. Click a dot to open its listing:

Median sold $/sqft — band × condition (n in grey)
Band	Renovated	Period / classic	Unclassified
Inner Sunset (≤19th Ave)	$1,353 3	$1,522 5	$1,422 3
Central Sunset (20th–30th)	$1,211 5	$1,445 1	$1,065 4
Outer Sunset (≥31st Ave)	$1,146 6	$963 4	$1,101 2

In the Inner Sunset, condition barely moves $/sqft — buyers are paying for the location and will tolerate an unrenovated period home (and the renovated n there is tiny). The renovation premium is clearest in the Central and Outer Sunset, where a remodel offsets the less-desirable address.

Holding size constant

$/sqft also falls as homes get bigger (correlation −0.28), and renovated homes skew big — a second way the pooled average misleads. Plotted against square footage, the renovated dots and their trend sit above everything else at any size:

Median sold $/sqft — size tertile × condition
Size	sqft	Renovated	Everything else
Small	<2,176	— 0	$1,202 11
Mid	2,176–2,443	$1,182 8	$1,445 3
Large	>2,443	$1,123 6	$963 6

The premium is even clearer in total price

Because renovated homes are also bigger, the condition premium shows up most plainly in total close price. Plotted against size, the renovated dots ride above the rest — they're both larger and pricier per foot:

Median total sold price — band × condition
Band	Renovated	Period / classic	Unclassified
Inner Sunset (≤19th Ave)	$3.02M 3	$4.20M 5	$2.32M 3
Central Sunset (20th–30th)	$2.80M 5	$3.23M 1	$1.85M 4
Outer Sunset (≥31st Ave)	$2.94M 6	$2.33M 4	$2.10M 2

3 · The 19th Ave / Highway 1 noise penalty

19th Ave is Highway 1 — six lanes of through-traffic. This curated 34-home set happens to contain no on-19th sales, so we can't measure the discount here — but the 1,449-sale crawl can: its 53 on-19th-Ave homes sold at roughly -25% $/sqft vs the rest. And it's not a condition or size artifact: the gap is -27% comparing only not-renovated homes, -25% among not-renovated homes on the nearby 16th–22nd-Ave stretch. Treat 19th-Ave (and Sunset Blvd) frontage as a real, location-only discount.

4 · Month by month — renovated vs not

Both signals by close month, split renovated vs not. Monthly $/sqft depends on which homes happened to sell that month — a couple of big sales swing a thin month — so read it loosely. The cleaner pulse of market heat is over-ask %: how far the sale closed above the original list price. Split by month and condition, the counts get tiny (grey numbers), so treat single points as anecdote, not trend:

Every sold home as a dot (renovated / not) — click to open its listing; lines are the per-cohort trend:

Over-ask % per sale — each dated sale as a dot (renovated / not), lines are the per-cohort trend; click a dot to open its listing:

By close month × condition — median sold $/sqft and over-ask (n in grey)
Month	Renovated		Not renovated
	$/sqft	over-ask	$/sqft	over-ask
2026-03	$1,211 7	+8%	$1,188 7	+12%
2026-04	$1,111 2	+21%	$1,353 6	+41%
2026-05	$1,152 5	+20%	$998 3	+9%
2026-06	— 0	—	$1,165 4	+42%

Across all dated sales the median home closed +21% over list. The month-to-month wiggle is noise (tiny counts); the durable pattern, from §2, is that unrenovated homes get bid up harder over their lower asks while renovated homes carry the higher absolute prices.

Appendix · every closed sale

Click a column to re-sort. ave = parsed/estimated avenue; band = E-W; reno from quality_tier; over = sold vs list.

Address	Ave	Band	Cond.	Sqft	Sold $	Sold $/sqft	Over-ask	Closed
931 Kirkham St	14	Inner	period	2,250	$4.24M	$1,884	+77%	2026-04
1426 8th Ave	8	Inner	reno	2,443	$4.10M	$1,678	+79%	2026-03
1819 8th Ave	8	Inner	—	1,745	$2.90M	$1,662	+61%	2026-04
1278 11th Ave	11	Inner	period	2,110	$3.31M	$1,569	+51%	2026-06
1359 5th Ave	5	Inner	period	3,876	$5.90M	$1,522	+13%	2026-03
1278 23rd Ave	23	Central	period	2,232	$3.23M	$1,445	+0%	2026-04
1866 16th Ave	16	Inner	—	1,630	$2.32M	$1,422	+36%	2026-03
1546 26th Ave	26	Central	—	1,550	$2.15M	$1,387	+44%	2026-06
1738 17th Ave	17	Inner	reno	2,229	$3.02M	$1,353	+37%	2026-03
1601 15th Ave	15	Inner	period	3,315	$4.20M	$1,267	+40%	2026-03
1846 31st Ave	31	Outer	—	1,984	$2.50M	$1,260	+25%	2026-04
1820 Kirkham St	22	Central	reno	2,274	$2.80M	$1,231	+40%	2026-05
2501 Moraga St	30	Central	reno	2,176	$2.65M	$1,218	+33%	2026-03
1354 29th Avenue	29	Central	reno	2,403	$2.91M	$1,211	+8%	2026-03
1671 34th Ave	34	Outer	reno	2,616	$3.15M	$1,204	+5%	2026-03
1718 22nd Ave	22	Central	—	1,560	$1.88M	$1,202	+57%	2026-04
1706 31st Avenue	31	Outer	period	2,000	$2.38M	$1,188	+0%	2026-03
1357 17th Ave	17	Inner	—	1,800	$2.10M	$1,167	—	2026-05
1338 33rd Ave	33	Outer	reno	2,760	$3.21M	$1,163	+20%	2026-05
1371 34th Ave	34	Outer	reno	2,256	$2.60M	$1,152	-2%	2026-05
1646 34th Ave	34	Outer	reno	2,440	$2.78M	$1,139	+11%	2026-04
1827 33rd Ave	33	Outer	reno	2,866	$3.10M	$1,082	+30%	2026-04
2832 Kirkham St	32	Outer	reno	2,300	$2.40M	$1,046	+61%	2026-05
1495 21st Ave	21	Central	reno	2,850	$2.93M	$1,029	+5%	2026-03
1501 28th Ave	28	Central	reno	2,722	$2.73M	$1,001	+14%	2026-05
1719 33rd Ave	33	Outer	period	3,558	$3.55M	$998	+20%	2026-05
2628 Lawton St	32	Outer	—	1,815	$1.71M	$942	+10%	2026-06
1850 Judah St	24	Central	—	1,670	$1.55M	$928	+21%	2026-04
1346 31st Ave	31	Outer	period	2,475	$2.29M	$927	—	2026-03
1443 30th Ave	30	Central	—	2,073	$1.83M	$882	+41%	2026-06
1515 11th Ave	11	Inner	reno	2,283	$2.00M	$876	-13%	2026-03
1352 34th Ave	34	Outer	period	2,340	$1.96M	$838	-2%	2026-05
1701-1711 Funston Ave 1703	—	—	period	4,055	$2.80M	$691	-7%	2026-03
1875 9Th Ave	9	Inner	period	3,282	$2.20M	$670	+10%	2026-03

Method & caveats

Avenue parsed from the street address; for homes on named cross-streets (Kirkham, Lawton, Judah…) it's estimated from longitude (calibrated to ±1 avenue).
Bands: Inner ≤19th Ave, Central 20th–30th, Outer ≥31st.
Renovation comes from each listing's quality_tier (renovated-luxury / renovated-modern → "renovated"). 9 sold homes have no tier yet and sit in "unclassified" — improving that classification would tighten section 2.
Exclusions: Active listings (incl. 1465 itself, which appears only as the map ★) are kept out of all sale stats — they have only an ask, not a close. 1 record flagged data_suspect (1759 8th Ave) is dropped entirely as likely-bad data. Off-MLS sales keep their $/sqft but are excluded from over-ask (their list==sold is a recording artifact, not a bidding outcome).
Medians throughout; n shown everywhere. Active/on-market listings are excluded (no close price). One sale lacks geo and is binned by address only.
Generated by scripts/build-analysis.mjs from the same data as the browser. Re-run after each collection.