When will a renovated home come up near Kirkham & 22nd/23rd?

Listing-arrival odds for a fully-renovated, 1465-shaped house close to ≈1827 Kirkham St · $/sqft cousins → · $2.8M cousins → · bid odds → · browser →

The goal: buy a fully renovated single-family home — 1465-shaped (3–5 bd, 1,900–2,900 sqft; the ultra-luxury finish is optional) — as close as possible to Kirkham & 22nd/23rd Ave (≈1827 Kirkham St, ★). The question: how likely is one to hit the market within 3, 6, or 12 months, by how close we're willing to be?

Method in one line. Over the last 8 years, 129 qualifying homes came to market within 2,000 ft of the spot. Assuming listings keep arriving at the recent (last 4-yr) rate, the odds of at least one within a given window follow directly (a Poisson model: P(≥1 within t) = 1 − e^−λt). Each dot below is one past listing (hover it); the rings are 500 / 1,000 / 2,000 ft.

The odds, by how close you'll go

Ring from ★	within 3 mo	within 6 mo	within 12 mo	within 18 mo	within 24 mo	gap
< 500 ft ~1–2 blocks	27%	46%	71%	85%	92%	~10 mo
< 1,000 ft ~3 blocks	50%	75%	94%	98%	>99%	~4 mo
< 2,000 ft ~6 blocks	86%	98%	>99%	>99%	>99%	~2 mo

Primary figures use the recent 4-year arrival rate (renovations have accelerated); cell shading scales with the probability. On the slower full-8-year base rate, 12-month odds are 53% (<500 ft), 86% (<1,000 ft), >99% (<2,000 ft). "Gap" = average months between such listings in that ring. 32 of the 129 qualifying homes sat inside 2,000 ft.

Where they've come up — 129 renovated 1465-shaped sales, last 8 yrs

last 12 molast 4 yrolder★ target (1827 Kirkham)★ 1465 23rd

North = toward Golden Gate Park; east = toward the inner avenues. Hover any dot for the address, date, distance, and size. The tight inner rings are sparse — renovated homes of this size simply don't turn over often within a block or two of any single corner.

Closest recent arrivals:

Sold	Address	Dist	Sqft	$
2026-05	1820 Kirkham Street	0 ft	2,274	$2.80M
2026-03	1495 21st Avenue	346 ft	2,850	$2.93M
2026-02	1427 21st Avenue	544 ft	2,369	$2.80M
2025-09	1447 25th Avenue	901 ft	2,410	$2.25M
2025-06	1530 Lawton Street	733 ft	2,645	$2.30M
2025-02	1459 22nd Avenue	216 ft	2,251	$2.06M
2024-04	1550 22nd Avenue	473 ft	2,480	$2.61M
2024-03	1579 24th Avenue	815 ft	2,440	$2.30M
2024-03	2122 Kirkham Street	911 ft	2,275	$1.95M
2023-10	1539 23rd Avenue	440 ft	2,190	$1.70M

What this says about strategy

If "very close" means within a block or two (<500 ft), expect to wait: a qualifying home comes up there about once every 10 months, putting the odds at 27% in a quarter, 71% in a year, and 92% in two. (That rests on just 5 recent arrivals, so it's soft — the 95% CI on the 12-month figure is 33%–95%.) Widen to ~3 blocks (<1,000 ft) and the odds flip in your favor: 75% within 6 months, 94% within a year. At ~6 blocks (<2,000 ft) — the heart of the 21st–25th renovated cluster — something fitting lists almost every month (98% within 6 months). Practical read: anchor the search at ≤1,000 ft for a realistic 6–12-month buy, and treat a <500-ft listing as a rare chance to move fast on. (These are the odds a home lists; winning it is a separate question →.)

Method & caveats

Center ★ = ≈1827 Kirkham St (geocoded to the adjacent 1820 Kirkham). Distances are straight-line feet from there.
Qualifying = single-family, LLM-judged renovated, 3–5 bd, 1,900–2,900 sqft (1465's size class; finish quality not required). Source: data/compass-sold/detail (Compass "sold, last 8 yrs"). Arrival date = sold date (the crawl's reliable timestamp); since closings lag listing by ~3–6 weeks, the implied "comes to market" dates run a few weeks late and the arrival rate is unaffected.
Poisson model: P(≥1 in t months) = 1 − e^−λ·t/12, with λ = qualifying arrivals ÷ years observed (recent 4-yr rate primary; full-8-yr as the conservative floor). Assumes arrivals are independent and the recent rate persists.
Counts the sold set, which cuts both ways: homes listed-but-withdrawn are missed (undercount), but the set also includes off-MLS / pocket sales that never publicly listed — these inflate the arrival count above what a buyer watching the open market could actually have acted on (overcount). And a crawl is never 100% complete. Small inner-ring counts → wide uncertainty (see the <500 ft CI above); read <500 ft loosely. Generated by scripts/build-availability.mjs.