The $2.8M cousins · what 1465 23rd Ave is worth

Last-month sales at 1820 Kirkham's total price, judged down to true block-level comps · $1,231/sqft cousins → · when to buy → · bid odds → · browser →

The target — 1465 23rd Ave: 4 bd / 4 ba · 2,389 sqft · built 1924 · renovated-luxury · listed $2.30M ($961/sqft ask). Its truest twin, 1820 Kirkham, sold last month for $2.80M. The blunt question: what else did ~$2.80M buy last month, and how does 1465 stack up?

Match on dollars, get home-twins. The $/sqft cousins were wildly different houses at one price-per-foot. Match on total price and the opposite happens: the 2 homes that closed last month within −5% / +8% of $2.80M ($2.66M–$3.02M) are near-identical — both renovated mid-size 4-bedrooms, because ~$2.80M in today's Sunset buys exactly 1465's profile.

Then we tighten to real comps. For each twin we took its nearest ~50 sold homes and had an LLM score every one on micro-location (cross street, avenue, metres), renovation & finish (reading each listing description), and size — keeping only those scoring ≥ 65. Each dot is such a comp (click → Compass); the Sim column is its score. Toggle = 2026 dollars.

What ~$2.80M bought last month — 2 twins

Single-family closings within −5% / +8% of $2.80M, last month — both renovated 4-beds, both about 1465's size.

Closed	Address	Sold	List	Over-ask	Sqft	Bd/Ba	$/sqft
2026-05-14	1820 Kirkham Street ★ twin	$2.80M	$2.00M	+40%	2,274	4/3	$1,231
2026-05-08	1501 28th Avenue	$2.73M	$2.39M	+14%	2,722	4/6	$1,001
on-market	1465 23rd Ave the target	—	$2.30M	—	2,389	4/4	$961 ask

Note the over-ask: 1820 Kirkham was listed at just $2.00M and bid up +40% to $2.80M. 1465's $2.30M ask ($961/sqft) is the same low-anchor play — not the expected price.

Each twin, against its real block-level comps

For each $2.80M twin, the renovated 4-beds an LLM judged genuinely similar (location + finish + size), tracked by total sale price over four years.

1820 Kirkham Street ★ 1465’s twin · 2,274 sqft · 4/3 · renovated · sold $2.80M (+40% vs ask)

6 of its 50 nearest candidates scored ≥ 65. Those block-level comps now sell for a median $2.80M today ($2.76M in the last year) — that's what a home like this fetches now.

Closed	Address	Ave	Block	Sqft	Bd/Ba	Sold	$/sqft	Sim	Why similar
2026-05-08	1501 28th Avenue	28	Kirkham–Lawton	2,722	4/6	$2.73M	$1,001	66	Far west (28th, dAve5.5, 548m, outer mkt); but studs-up designer reno, Thermador; 4/6, 2722sf larger.
2026-02-19	1427 21st Avenue	21	Judah–Kirkham	2,369	3/2	$2.80M	$1,182	72	Same block (21st/Judah-Kirkham, 166m), high-end 2021 studs reno chef kitchen; but 3/2 only 2369sf, fewer bed/bath than seed
2025-05-07	1670 27th Avenue	26	Lawton–Moraga	2,545	4/4	$2.84M	$1,114	67	Mid-west (26th, dAve3.9, 556m); reimagined high-end Thermador; 4/4, 2545sf matching config. Strong comp.
2025-02-21	1459 22nd Avenue	22	Judah–Kirkham	2,251	5/3	$2.06M	$917	74	Same block (22nd/Judah-Kirkham, 66m), near-identical size 2251sf; but reno is cosmetic-leaning (vinyl floors, Viking) not studs-out, 5/3 config
2025-02-13	1730 22nd Avenue	21	Lawton–Moraga	2,405	4/5	$2.55M	$1,061	86	~same ave band (21st, dAve-0.9, 512m); down-to-studs designer reno w/Thermador; 4/4.5, 2405sf near-identical. True twin.
2024-04-23	1550 22nd Avenue	21	Kirkham–Lawton	2,480	4/5	$2.61M	$1,052	78	Adjacent block (21st/Kirkham-Lawton, 144m), 4/4.5 2480sf; completely overhauled, Thermador, radiant heat—strong modern-luxury match

1501 28th Avenue · 2,722 sqft · 4/6 · renovated · sold $2.73M (+14% vs ask)

9 of its 50 nearest candidates scored ≥ 65. Those block-level comps now sell for a median $2.90M today ($2.91M in the last year) — that's what a home like this fetches now.

Closed	Address	Ave	Block	Sqft	Bd/Ba	Sold	$/sqft	Sim	Why similar
2026-05-12	1338 33rd Avenue	32	Irving–Judah	2,760	4/5	$3.21M	$1,163	68	4.5 ave W, Judah ~551m; down-to-studs luxe reno, glass stair/wet bar mirrors seed; 4/5 2760sf near-identical size/config
2026-03-30	1354 29th Avenue	28	Irving–Judah	2,403	4/4	$2.91M	$1,211	70	321m, 29th Irving-Judah; fully reimagined studs reno luxury Thermador; 4bd/4ba 2403sf, strong but farther/inner
2026-02-23	1474 34th Avenue	33	Kirkham–Judah	2,455	5/4	$2.69M	$1,095	66	5.4 ave W, Kirkham-Judah, ~536m; full 2018 reno w/ Thermador, modern; 5/4 2455sf slightly off config but strong reno comp
2025-07-25	1418 27th Avenue	26	Judah–Kirkham	2,403	4/4	$2.65M	$1,103	74	226m east(27th) Judah-Kirkham; architect studs-out reno all-new systems; 4bd/4ba 2403sf, strong inner comp
2025-05-07	1670 27th Avenue	26	Lawton–Moraga	2,545	4/4	$2.84M	$1,114	66	364m, 27th Lawton-Moraga; beautifully reimagined Thermador high-end; 4bd/4ba 2545sf good config but outer/far
2025-04-16	1539 29th Avenue	29	Kirkham–Lawton	3,119	5/5	$2.73M	$874	76	119m, 29th Kirkham-Lawton; full 2016 reno, Thermador/quartz high-end; 5bd/5ba 3119sf a bit larger
2025-02-21	1443 29th Avenue	29	Judah–Kirkham	2,272	4/5	$2.38M	$1,048	75	163m, 29th Judah-Kirkham; 2022 studs reno, Thermador/custom; 4bd/5ba 2272sf, strong comp slightly smaller
2022-11-03	1418 30th Avenue	29	Judah–Kirkham	3,154	5/4	$2.77M	$879	70	228m, 30th Judah-Kirkham; full transformation Thermador, seismic/new systems; 5bd/4ba 3154sf larger
2022-09-26	1515 28th Avenue	28	Kirkham–Lawton	2,426	3/5	$2.60M	$1,072	88	Same 28th/Kirkham-Lawton block, 23m away; full studs reno w/ radiant heat & high-end kitchen; 3bd/5ba 2426sf slightly smaller

Where does 1465 sit in the $2.80M field?

1465 is a renovated-luxury 4/4 at 2,389 sqft. The twins: 1820 Kirkham is a 4/3 at 2,274 sqft; 1501 28th a 4/6 at 2,722 sqft. 1465 sits in the middle on size, on the close-in 23rd Ave / Irving corridor. Size-normalized, the 14 judged comps imply $1,155/sqft at the median → $2.76M for 1465 — but it isn't a median home.

Both twins' judged comps, sale price over four years:

● 1820 Kirkham comps ● 1501 28th comps

1465 is the nicest home in the field

We scored each home's finish quality 0–100 from its description alone (renovation depth, finishes, features — no location/size/price). 1465 scores 95, the top of the set — above even the twin 1820 Kirkham (83), which still sold for $2.80M. So 1465 belongs at the top of its comps' price-per-foot, not the median:

Each dot a block-level comp (x = finish, y = today's $/sqft). ◆ 1465 is placed at our estimate (finish 95) — a marker, not an observed sale.

Location — the second axis

Total price buys two things: the house and the spot. So we also score each home's location 0–100, like finish: how much buyers pay per foot on its block once home type is stripped out, ranked across the district. 1465 scores 34 — mid-Sunset, below the inner avenues (8th–17th run 85–100) but above its comps' median of 16, which skew toward the beach.

Today's $/sqft by block · ★ = 1465 · hover anywhere for the value

$1,050/sf$1,202/sf

Finish and location are independent here — two separate levers worth +$4/sqft per finish point and +$2/sqft per location point. Placing every comp on the finish × location plane and dropping 1465 on:

$913/sf$1,303/sfhover any cell or dot

Brighter dots sold in the last year. ★ = 1465 (finish 95, location 34); the surface there reads $1,160–$1,117/sqft → $2.72M — right on the dollar-twins' $2.73M–$2.80M prints, though below our $2.88M centre. Same tension the $/sqft page flags: top-tier finish but only mid-Sunset location, so a two-axis fit sits lower than finish alone — and this fit runs conservative besides (the description-only finish scores are noisy, and finish 95 sits at the edge of the data). 1465 is placed, not observed.

A fair price today for 1465

$2.8M cousins · block-level comps · finish-adjusted · today

$2.88M – $2.96M

center ≈ $2.88M · the two twins sold $2.73M–$2.80M · floor $2.76M · vs $2.30M list (+26%)

$2.76M
size-matched median (floor)

$2.89M
finish-rank (top-decile)

$2.88M–$2.96M
twin & designer premium

Matching on dollars lands where the $/sqft view does: a renovated 4-bed on these blocks at its median would be $2.76M, but 1465 is the nicest in the field, so it reads $2.88M–$2.96M, center about $2.88M. The two literal twins sold for $2.73M–$2.80M; 1465's nearest (1820 Kirkham, finish 83, two blocks away) went for $2.80M, and 1465 out-finishes it — supporting the designer-premium top near $2.96M. The $2.30M list is bait, exactly like Kirkham's $2.00M, which closed +40% higher. The $/sqft-cousins view → agrees.

Method & caveats

Seeds: Compass single-family closings with sold_date ≥ 2026-05-01 (the last ~6 weeks of closings) and sold price ∈ [$2.66M, $3.02M] (1820 Kirkham's $2.80M, −5%/+8%). The asymmetric +8% upper reach gives room for comps a notch nicer than the twin; at today's data a symmetric ±5% admits the same twins.
The top of the range is judgment, not measurement: the "designer premium" is a hand-set +3% over the twin's $/sqft (sensitivity 0–6% → $2.88M–$3.05M); the centre is the (top-decile + twin)/2 midpoint. The measured part is the comp floor ($2.76M) and the twins' actual prices.
1465's finish (95) sits one point above the best comp (94); the verdict leans on the cohort's top decile and the twins' sales, not the exact score, so it holds for 1465 ∈ {90–95}.
Candidates: each twin's nearest 50 renovated single-family sales (±25% sqft, ±1 bed, trailing 4 yrs), LLM-scored 0–100 on micro-location + renovation/finish (from the description) + size; comps ≥ 65 kept (data/compass-sold/cousins-scores.json).
Finish: a second LLM pass scored each home's renovation/finish quality 0–100 from its description alone. 1465 scores 95 — top of the set (twin 83) — so it's placed at the cohort's top-decile $/sqft (data/compass-sold/cousins-finish.json).
Absolute price isn't size-normalized, so 1465's figures use the comps' today's-$ $/sqft × 2,389 sqft, re-priced by the hedonic price index (not CPI). A centre-of-range, not an appraisal. 1465 is the on-market reference, not a comp.
Generated by scripts/build-2-8-M-cousins.mjs (scoring by scripts/score-cousins.mjs).