1,449 sold SFRs, 2018–2026 · Compass crawl within an Inner/Central Sunset box · as of 2026-06-11 · recent comp → · value 1465 → · browser →
Every past sale's $/sqft, re-priced to what it would fetch today (the §6 model, not just CPI) and smoothed into a surface — all homes vs remodeled only. Laid out like a map (west/ocean on the left, east/park on the right), the inner avenues and the blocks near Irving run hottest. Each panel uses its own color scale: remodeled homes sell ~+14% higher everywhere (§6), so on a shared scale the remodeled panel would simply read all-red — compare the legend numbers for the level gap. The gold box is the 21st–25th × Lincoln–Lawton target area; ★ is 1465 23rd Ave. Hover anywhere for the value.
Distance-weighted average of 1,449 sales (284 renovated), each projected to today by the §6 index so a 2019 sale and a 2025 sale are comparable. The remodel lift shows most where the base price is lower (central/outer) — a remodel offsets a less-central address, while the inner avenues are pricey regardless. A smooth gradient, not a parcel-level estimate.
Zoomed to the target block — the same everything-vs-remodeled split framed on 21st–25th × Lincoln–Lawton (where we want to buy). ★ is 1465.
Interpolated from all 1,449 sales, framed to the target box. Within these four avenues the surface is fairly flat — price varies more north–south (toward Irving) than across 21st→25th — and the remodeled panel's legend sits a clear notch higher.
Everything on this page is sold (closing) price — the crawl carries no list prices, so all "$/sqft" here = sold price ÷ living sqft, and all "price" = final sale price.
Every quarter 2018–2026. The YoY column compares each quarter to the same quarter a year earlier, which strips out the spring-high / winter-low seasonality.
Every sale is a dot (click to open its Compass page); the curve is a smoothed trend (LOESS). The quarterly-median table is below.
| Quarter | n | Median $/sqft | YoY | Median price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 Q2 | 11 | — | $1.63M | |
| 2018 Q3 | 30 | — | $1.49M | |
| 2018 Q4 | 37 | — | $1.43M | |
| 2019 Q1 | 25 | — | $1.48M | |
| 2019 Q2 | 57 | -11% | $1.62M | |
| 2019 Q3 | 33 | -3% | $1.45M | |
| 2019 Q4 | 37 | +2% | $1.52M | |
| 2020 Q1 | 24 | +9% | $1.69M | |
| 2020 Q2 | 35 | +5% | $1.55M | |
| 2020 Q3 | 38 | -1% | $1.53M | |
| 2020 Q4 | 47 | +7% | $1.68M | |
| 2021 Q1 | 35 | +1% | $1.55M | |
| 2021 Q2 | 72 | +1% | $1.76M | |
| 2021 Q3 | 56 | +15% | $2.01M | |
| 2021 Q4 | 58 | -6% | $1.80M | |
| 2022 Q1 | 38 | -3% | $1.90M | |
| 2022 Q2 | 59 | +11% | $2.03M | |
| 2022 Q3 | 54 | -13% | $1.70M | |
| 2022 Q4 | 58 | +5% | $1.50M | |
| 2023 Q1 | 18 | +1% | $1.70M | |
| 2023 Q2 | 45 | -11% | $1.57M | |
| 2023 Q3 | 36 | -23% | $1.53M | |
| 2023 Q4 | 37 | +6% | $1.48M | |
| 2024 Q1 | 34 | -8% | $1.59M | |
| 2024 Q2 | 45 | +8% | $1.65M | |
| 2024 Q3 | 47 | +16% | $1.67M | |
| 2024 Q4 | 71 | -2% | $1.53M | |
| 2025 Q1 | 45 | +8% | $1.66M | |
| 2025 Q2 | 64 | -11% | $1.64M | |
| 2025 Q3 | 54 | +11% | $1.63M | |
| 2025 Q4 | 52 | 0% | $1.71M | |
| 2026 Q1 | 51 | +1% | $2.00M | |
| 2026 Q2 (partial) | 46 | +18% | $1.91M |
Cumulative 2018→2026: +12% $/sqft (annual medians) — flat for most of the decade, with nearly all the gain in the most recent quarters. (Toggle today's-$ to see this shrink — most of the nominal gain is just inflation.)
Closing (sold) price, not list.
| 2018 Q2 | 11 | 1,680 sqft median | |
| 2018 Q3 | 30 | 1,755 sqft median | |
| 2018 Q4 | 37 | 1,730 sqft median | |
| 2019 Q1 | 25 | 1,980 sqft median | |
| 2019 Q2 | 57 | 1,920 sqft median | |
| 2019 Q3 | 33 | 1,650 sqft median | |
| 2019 Q4 | 37 | 1,761 sqft median | |
| 2020 Q1 | 24 | 1,860 sqft median | |
| 2020 Q2 | 35 | 1,855 sqft median | |
| 2020 Q3 | 38 | 1,848 sqft median | |
| 2020 Q4 | 47 | 2,085 sqft median | |
| 2021 Q1 | 35 | 1,733 sqft median | |
| 2021 Q2 | 72 | 1,965 sqft median | |
| 2021 Q3 | 56 | 2,192 sqft median | |
| 2021 Q4 | 58 | 2,184 sqft median | |
| 2022 Q1 | 38 | 2,076 sqft median | |
| 2022 Q2 | 59 | 1,970 sqft median | |
| 2022 Q3 | 54 | 1,972 sqft median | |
| 2022 Q4 | 58 | 1,987 sqft median | |
| 2023 Q1 | 18 | 1,900 sqft median | |
| 2023 Q2 | 45 | 1,712 sqft median | |
| 2023 Q3 | 36 | 2,395 sqft median | |
| 2023 Q4 | 37 | 1,475 sqft median | |
| 2024 Q1 | 34 | 2,094 sqft median | |
| 2024 Q2 | 45 | 1,750 sqft median | |
| 2024 Q3 | 47 | 1,770 sqft median | |
| 2024 Q4 | 71 | 1,908 sqft median | |
| 2025 Q1 | 45 | 1,830 sqft median | |
| 2025 Q2 | 64 | 2,178 sqft median | |
| 2025 Q3 | 54 | 1,949 sqft median | |
| 2025 Q4 | 52 | 1,883 sqft median | |
| 2026 Q1 | 51 | 2,264 sqft median | |
| 2026 Q2 (partial) | 46 | 2,092 sqft median |
The same east–west bands, per quarter. Quarterly band cells are thin — Outer is often only a handful of sales — so read individual cells loosely and the long-run summary below as the real signal:
The 19th Ave / Highway 1 noise discount is real and measurable here. The 53 homes fronting 19th Ave (six lanes of Highway 1 through-traffic) sold at a median $685/sqft vs $913 for everyone else — a -25% discount. And it isn't a condition or size artifact: comparing only not-renovated homes the gap is still -27% (23 on 19th), and -25% narrowing further to not-renovated homes on the 16th–22nd-Ave stretch. (The curated recent-comp set has no on-19th sales, so this is the place to see it.)
| Quarter | Inner (≤19th Ave) | Central (20th–30th) | Outer (31st–36th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 Q2 | $873 6 | $888 2 | $1,038 3 |
| 2018 Q3 | $807 10 | $1,002 12 | $703 8 |
| 2018 Q4 | $827 24 | $804 11 | $852 2 |
| 2019 Q1 | $828 20 | $640 2 | $970 3 |
| 2019 Q2 | $966 29 | $738 24 | $627 4 |
| 2019 Q3 | $879 18 | $849 10 | $912 5 |
| 2019 Q4 | $945 20 | $774 11 | $820 6 |
| 2020 Q1 | $973 15 | $745 6 | $956 3 |
| 2020 Q2 | $963 15 | $893 14 | $699 6 |
| 2020 Q3 | $829 26 | $934 7 | $867 5 |
| 2020 Q4 | $871 27 | $894 13 | $801 7 |
| 2021 Q1 | $970 23 | $973 9 | $891 3 |
| 2021 Q2 | $920 38 | $913 30 | $967 4 |
| 2021 Q3 | $977 33 | $1,080 22 | $1,158 1 |
| 2021 Q4 | $797 29 | $852 17 | $825 12 |
| 2022 Q1 | $930 23 | $1,057 9 | $807 6 |
| 2022 Q2 | $1,173 29 | $1,035 21 | $622 9 |
| 2022 Q3 | $877 29 | $813 18 | $1,038 7 |
| 2022 Q4 | $865 21 | $824 30 | $964 7 |
| 2023 Q1 | $1,024 13 | $740 3 | $785 2 |
| 2023 Q2 | $907 23 | $760 14 | $1,007 8 |
| 2023 Q3 | $595 22 | $863 9 | $828 5 |
| 2023 Q4 | $975 23 | $801 11 | $882 3 |
| 2024 Q1 | $895 22 | $789 8 | $864 4 |
| 2024 Q2 | $1,059 18 | $848 19 | $921 8 |
| 2024 Q3 | $784 34 | $801 10 | $914 3 |
| 2024 Q4 | $608 30 | $950 31 | $1,073 10 |
| 2025 Q1 | $944 22 | $925 18 | $847 5 |
| 2025 Q2 | $944 29 | $869 26 | $820 9 |
| 2025 Q3 | $844 27 | $956 22 | $1,204 5 |
| 2025 Q4 | $711 29 | $972 19 | $931 4 |
| 2026 Q1 | $843 25 | $1,022 22 | $1,003 4 |
| 2026 Q2 | $975 18 | $1,021 16 | $1,092 12 |
| Band | 2018-ish | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inner (≤19th Ave) | $827 | $896 | +8% |
| Central (20th–30th) | $957 | $931 | -3% |
| Outer (31st–36th) | $801 | $1,038 | +30% |
The Inner premium that's obvious in a single recent quarter fades over the long run — Central and especially Outer caught up.
| 2018 Q2 | 11 | |
| 2018 Q3 | 30 | |
| 2018 Q4 | 37 | |
| 2019 Q1 | 25 | |
| 2019 Q2 | 57 | |
| 2019 Q3 | 33 | |
| 2019 Q4 | 37 | |
| 2020 Q1 | 24 | |
| 2020 Q2 | 35 | |
| 2020 Q3 | 38 | |
| 2020 Q4 | 47 | |
| 2021 Q1 | 35 | |
| 2021 Q2 | 72 | |
| 2021 Q3 | 56 | |
| 2021 Q4 | 58 | |
| 2022 Q1 | 38 | |
| 2022 Q2 | 59 | |
| 2022 Q3 | 54 | |
| 2022 Q4 | 58 | |
| 2023 Q1 | 18 | |
| 2023 Q2 | 45 | |
| 2023 Q3 | 36 | |
| 2023 Q4 | 37 | |
| 2024 Q1 | 34 | |
| 2024 Q2 | 45 | |
| 2024 Q3 | 47 | |
| 2024 Q4 | 71 | |
| 2025 Q1 | 45 | |
| 2025 Q2 | 64 | |
| 2025 Q3 | 54 | |
| 2025 Q4 | 52 | |
| 2026 Q1 | 51 | |
| 2026 Q2 (partial) | 46 |
Each sale carries an LLM-assigned renovation label, read from its listing description. Renovated homes have sold at a persistent ~7% $/sqft premium across the decade, and the gap is intact today: in 2026, $1,117 vs $1,014/sqft (+10%, today's $). Unlike the curated recent set, renovated stock here doesn't cluster in the cheap outer avenues (median 18th vs 20th Ave), so the comparison is direct — no Simpson's reversal.
Annual medians, renovated vs not-renovated; renovated n ≈ 12–50/yr, lines break where a year has <3 of a kind. Bottom-right toggle switches both lines to 2026 dollars.
But $/sqft understates how much renovation is worth, because renovated homes are also bigger — and $/sqft falls as homes grow (§6). Whole-period medians, re-priced to today:
| Condition | Median $/sqft | Median size | Median total price | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renovated | $1,120 | 2,176 sqft | $2.29M | 284 |
| Not renovated | $1,033 | 1,730 sqft | $1.77M | 698 |
Renovated homes run 26% larger (2,176 vs 1,730 sqft) and cost $2.29M vs $1.77M in total — the slim per-sqft gap hides a real premium. Hold size, lot, and location fixed and the like-for-like renovation premium is +14% (§6).
To compare sales from different years — and to power the map up top — we fit a regression (a hedonic model) of price on what actually moves Sunset prices: size, lot, renovation, location (Irving proximity + avenue), and year (R² = 0.56, 1,449 sales). Holding everything else fixed, renovation is worth +14% (95% CI +11%…+18%) — more than the raw ~7% gap in §5, because renovated homes are also bigger and $/sqft falls as size rises, which masks part of the premium. ("Unclear"-condition homes are modeled as their own category, not lumped into the unrenovated baseline.)
The model's year terms form a price index: what one fixed home would fetch each year, free of the changing mix of what happened to sell. That index (not CPI) is how every past sale is re-priced to today on the map up top — a 2021 sale × 1.04, a 2023 sale × 1.14. The 2026 point rests on a partial year, so its 1.18× is the noisiest (95% CI 1.10–1.27×) — read the curve, not the last dot.
The sale-price index tracks the actual dollar price of a fixed home; the CPI line is inflation alone. Both start at 2018 = 1, so the gap between them is the real, inflation-adjusted move: Sunset prices lagged inflation through ~2024 (a real decline) until the 2026 spike pulled the housing index (1.18×) back toward CPI (1.31×). Re-pricing a past sale "to today" uses the housing index — that's literally what it would sell for now, inflation included.
| Sale year | Inflation × CPI alone | Real × above/below inflation | Combined × applied; = infl × real |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | ×1.31 | ×0.90 | ×1.18 |
| 2019 | ×1.29 | ×0.90 | ×1.16 |
| 2020 | ×1.27 | ×0.86 | ×1.10 |
| 2021 | ×1.22 | ×0.85 | ×1.04 |
| 2022 | ×1.13 | ×0.92 | ×1.03 |
| 2023 | ×1.08 | ×1.06 | ×1.14 |
| 2024 | ×1.05 | ×1.09 | ×1.15 |
| 2025 | ×1.02 | ×1.07 | ×1.10 |
| 2026 | ×1.00 | ×1.00 | ×1.00 |
To re-price a past sale, multiply by the Combined column only — it already includes inflation (Combined = Inflation × Real). Red Real below ×1.00 means Sunset prices rose slower than inflation from that year to today; green means they beat it. (A 2018 home that merely tracked CPI would be worth ×1.31 today; an actual 2018 Sunset home fetches only ×1.18.)
data/compass-sold/listings.jsonl — a quadtree Compass "sold, last 8 years" crawl of a box (lat 37.7535–37.7658, lon −122.4945 to −122.4625).scripts/build-analysis-8.mjs. Re-run after re-crawling.